Long-Term Shore Changes
A time series of shoreline position data from 1946 to 2016 along a barrier island on North Carolina’s Outer Banks (USA) has been assembled under auspices of a comprehensive monitoring program. This database has been used to monitor changes and predict future shoreline behavior, using linear regression with a 95% prediction interval. In the present study, the predictive success of the prediction interval methodology is examined and the dependence on the number of shoreline positions is assessed. The method is found to be reasonable for planning and management applications.