Hurricane Harvey And Storm Surge

Oral

2001 - Hurricane Water Level Prediction Using Surrogate Modeling

Presenting Author(s)

• JM

  Jeffrey Melby, MS, PhD, PE

  Principal
  Noble Consultants-G.E.C. Inc.

Additional Author #1(s)

• FD

  Fatima Diop

Additional Author #2(s)

• NN

  Norberto Nadal-Caraballo

Additional Author #3(s)

• AT

  Alex Taflanidis

Additional Author #4(s)

• VG

  Victor Gonzalez

  U.S. Army ERDC

For this study, surrogate models were constructed using kriging. High fidelity coupled surge and wave numerical modelling (e.g. ADCIRC and STWAVE) from the Coastal Hazards System was used as the training set.The surrogate models were trained using tropical storm parameters (latitude, longitude, central pressure, radius to maximum wind speed, storm heading, and forward speed) at a specific location as inputs and individual responses (e.g. surge) as outputs. Tide was computed separately using ADCIRC and linearly superimposed with surge to get total water level. The regional surrogates accurately reproduced both peaks and time series of water levels for historical storms