Long-Term Shore Changes

Oral

1689 - Long-Term Shoreline Position Monitoring And Prediction, Pea Island, Nc

Presenting Author(s)

• 

  Elizabeth Sciaudone, PhD, PE

  Research Assistant Professor
  North Carolina State University, Dept. Civil, Construction & Environmental Engineering

Additional Author #1(s)

• 

  Liliana Velasquez Montoya, MSc, PhD

  Postdoctoral Research Scholar
  North Carolina State University

Additional Author #2(s)

• MO

  Margery Overton

Additional Author #3(s)

• ES

  Elizabeth Smyre

A time series of shoreline position data from 1946 to 2016 along a barrier island on North Carolina’s Outer Banks (USA) has been assembled under auspices of a comprehensive monitoring program. This database has been used to monitor changes and predict future shoreline behavior, using linear regression with a 95% prediction interval. In the present study, the predictive success of the prediction interval methodology is examined and the dependence on the number of shoreline positions is assessed. The method is found to be reasonable for planning and management applications.