Beach Profile Evolution
Quantitative insight in the prediction uncertainty of a morphological model is of crucial importance for model supported decision making in coastal engineering. This research quantifies the combined parameter and calibration uncertainty (or model uncertainty) that is contained in a morphological model. With the GLUE calibration method, the model uncertainty is quantified for predictions of a large-scale nourishment. Next, a stochastic approach is fed with the quantified model uncertainty and combined with wave statistics to obtain the total prediction uncertainty. The resulting method quantifies prediction uncertainty and enables assessment of the relative importance of model uncertainty with respect to input uncertainty.