Coastal Protection and Risk

Poster

1527 - Black Swans And Risk - Assessing Consequences Of Extreme Events For The German Bight

Presenting Author(s)

• MU

  Marius Ulm

  University of Siegen

Additional Author #1(s)

• AA

  Arne Arns

Additional Author #2(s)

• JJ

  Jürgen Jensen

  University of Siegen

The presented research project was initiated to examine the meteorological potential of storms in the German Bight and to assess the consequences of extremely large and rare but physically possible storm surge events, so called “black swans”. We use these possible meteorological extreme events and resulting hydraulic boundary conditions to simulate inundations in the study area around Emden (Lower Saxony, Germany) using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic numerical model. Combining inundation scenarios with exceeding probabilities and dike failure probabilities will yield risk maps, showing the most vulnerable dike sections and pointing out areas that need particular attention in maintenance.