Coastal Flood Risk
Recent advances in characterization of coastal flood hazards, particularly storm surge have focused on better treatment of physics, thanks in no small part to increased computational resources. However, the field lags in addressing uncertainties in data, methods, and engineering judgment. This talk will demonstrate how sources of uncertainty often have large effects on flood hazard estimates, both in terms of the mean hazard (e.g. for actuarial studies) and on conservative estimates (e.g. for design studies), using a combination of conceptual and real-world examples. Emphasis is placed on sources of uncertainty that are not typically accounted for in surges studies.